In 2008 I tried a "Partisan Factor" (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new "Partisan Factor" using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights. I weighed the 2010 races more and the registration and 2008 less.

Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

Here is the lowdown on these districts.

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

State Assembly

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 35 DEM, 18 GOP

Safe DEM (26): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 43, 44, 51, 53
Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 40, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

On Jan. 1 the city's minimum wage will rise to $10.24 an hour. That's the highest rate in the country and makes San Francisco the first place in the U.S. to mandate double-digit hourly wages for its lowest-paid workers.

Critics have derided the mandates as anti-business job killers. But San Francisco's economy has proved resilient. The city's unemployment rate was 7.8% in November, well below the 11.3% statewide rate. Over the last year, the San Francisco metropolitan area, which includes parts of neighboring San Mateo and Marin counties, created 3,900 new jobs, mostly in bars and restaurants within the city of San Francisco, according to the California Employment Development Department.

"San Francisco is a model in terms of showing what can be done to improve labor standards," said Ken Jacobs, chairman of the UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education. "Extensive economic research on the impact of the [minimum-wage] law found no impact on employment."

Although there's little chance of a deeply divided Congress approving a higher federal minimum wage, an effort is underway in Sacramento to raise the California wage to $8.50 and then peg it annually to the inflation rate.

With the economy still sluggish, California needs the stimulus that would be created by an increase in the minimum wage, said Assemblyman Luis Alejo (D-Watsonville), whose district includes farmworkers in the Salinas Valley.

"At a time when the cost of living is skyrocketing, it's becoming more difficult for families making the least in the state to keep up with inflation," he said. "If these low-wage workers get an increase, it goes back into the economy to pay bills."
L.A. Times

The San Francisco solution: To improve the economy, pay workers more

Well-paid workers become free-spending consumers. Free-spending consumers fuel the economy. A better economy breeds more jobs.

Who knows, maybe San Francisco is on to something.. - L.A. Times Opinion

Makes sense to me: the higher the wages the more money consumers have to spend, the more they spend the more businesses thrive, the more they thrive the more workers they hire. It's the multiplying effect, with an added bonus -- higher wages also increase government revenues and helps pay down the debt.

Since trickle down hasn't worked, isn't it time we try trickle up?

GOP caves on tax-cut extension. (Ho Ho Ho! HA HA Ha! Santa's come to town!)

Merry Christmas :)

From the paper that helped start the war, The New York Times

The cost in American lives and dollars:

4,484 dead soldiers (the state most affected is California, with 388 of the deaths)

The cost in US dollars: 823.2 billion

According to Iraq Body Count 113,728 Iraqi civilians were killed. Other studies put the deaths at over a million.

Iraqis feel their suffering given short shrift

U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq: "In Terms of Destroying Iraq, It’s 'Mission Accomplished'"

The Costs of War: Tens of Thousands Dead, Billions Spent, and a Country Torn Apart

Iraqi Women’s Activist Rebuffs U.S. Claims of a Freer Iraq: "This Is Not a Democratic Country"

Thank you cul

Happy Thanksgiving :)

http://livestre.am/134aA

Occupy Los Angeles

Bring back the Glass-Steagall Act!

Google "Dexia"

The floor is yours.

What's on your mind?
 
 

To my mind, this is all that needed to be done from the getgo -- targeted police action by intelligence and special forces to hunt down the criminals.

Two wars, over a million innocent people dead, over $1 trillion dollars of our tax money squandered, relentless bombing of some of the poorest, most beleaguered people on earth -- yet in the end, all it took was some good intelligence work, 30 Navy SEALS, and one helicopter to get Bin Ladin, who wasn't even in the country we were bombing for the past ten years.

The mind boggles at the folly of the so-called "War on Terror." The heart weeps over the senseless human suffering and loss.

In a case of irony, or coincidence, or something else we don't know about, the news comes eight years to the day that George Bush declared "Mission Accomplished" in Iraq.

In a few minutes President Obama is expected to say the words Americans have been waiting to hear since 9.11...

Can we pick up our marbles, what's left of them, and bring the troops home now?

"The real victors in this are the people of Bell, who were able to get rid of, there's no other way to say it, an oppressive regime," said reporter Jeff Gottlieb, clutching a bottle of champagne. - CBS News

This is a prime example of how important investigative journalism is in a democracy.

Congratulations to the whole team!

Los Angeles Times wins 2 Pulitzer Prizes

An unlikely duo wins Pulitzer for Bell coverage

Putlizer winner conquers the American dream

Los Tres Ases (The Three Aces) is a 50s Mexican band popular throughout the Latin world. I've loved these guys ever since a boyfriend introduced me to them back in high school. Their soft boleros with pitch perfect harmonies make me think of palm leaves gently swaying in a warm summer breeze.

Relax and enjoy.

Photo credit:Ricardo DeAratanha / Los Angeles Times / April 11, 2011

Richard and I made the 30-minute drive to the city of Bell last night to attend the new Council's first meeting. It isn't every day that a city rises like a phoenix from the ashes. We wanted to witness the auspicious event ourselves.

Neither of us had ever been to Bell. From what we had read about this poor L.A. suburb, we expected it to be rundown. What we found, instead, was a clean and orderly looking city with malls, shops, and restaurants on either side of the main drag, typical of any other working-class town in California. The houses, though modest, appeared tidy, the shrubbery well-tended, even the cars filling the parking lot of the community center to capacity were clean and shiny.

As we walked to the entrance of the community center we passed a CBS news van parked outside. Inside several police officers cordially guided us to the two remaining seats in a packed hall, where over two-hundred people had assembled. About twenty-five late comers listened on a loudspeaker outside.

While we waited for the proceedings to begin, my eyes scanned the people, mostly Latino, many White, a few Lebanese, the same mix that comprises the new council. The atmosphere was upbeat. Generous applause met and followed over a dozen people who spoke briefly. Most said kind and encouraging words to welcome the new council members, others implored them to be honest and transparent.

"Hopefully you will do everything without hiding behind closed doors like the previous council did," said 29-year resident Jose Moreno. "The money you are going to spend is our money. Don't give it away so easily."

After the people spoke, a Moment of Silence was called for Miguel Sanchez. Miguel had been a candidate for one of the council seats until he died of H1N1 just a few days before the election.

Following the solemn moment, the council members voted for a new mayor. Ali Saleh, the Lebanese businessman and lifelong resident of Bell, won.

"We want to be the model city, not only to the southeast side (of Los Angeles County) but to the nation," Saleh told the crowd.

My overall impression of Bell, its people, and the new council was very positive. I had the sense that the people are cautiously optimistic but also determined to never again suffer corruption in their beloved city.

More power to them!

Postscript: A number of questions remain: how will the people turn their determination into sustained civic engagement? How will a city of 36,000 residents (who do not have a local paper) stay informed when the media turns their attention elsewhere? Is faith and trust in elected officials enough, or does the whole process inevitably revert back to business-as-usual? Though the players are different, the game is still the same. What can people do to change the game? These are some of the questions that still cry out for answers, and not just in Bell.