Democracy for California

Outlook for California districts in 2012 - Christmas/New Year's edition

Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the "Outlook" series for 2012.

In 2008 I tried a "Partisan Factor" (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new "Partisan Factor" using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights. I weighed the 2010 races more and the registration and 2008 less.

Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

Here is the lowdown on these districts.

U.S. House

District	"Incumbent"	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Pres.	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	PF
CA-03	Garamendi	42.1	32.8	D+9.3	D+12.6	R+2.0	D+7.6	D+3.9
CA-07	Lungren	39.4	38.6	D+0.8	D+5.5	R+7.4	D+5.4	R+0.5
CA-09	McNerney	45.3	35.8	D+9.5	D+15.5	D+3.0	D+9.2	D+6.9
CA-16	Costa	48.3	33.4	D+14.9	D+17.8	R+3.8	D+8.4	D+3.9
CA-21	None	46.2	35.3	D+10.9	D+5.8	R+11.6	D+4.0	R+1.9
CA-24	Capps	39.2	35.6	D+3.6	D+15.5	R+1.4	D+0.6	D+0.8
CA-26	Gallegly (?)	41.1	35.5	D+5.6	D+14.9	R+2.0	R+1.0	D+0.0
CA-31	Dreier/Lewis (?)	41.1	37.0	D+4.1	D+14.9	D+2.2	D+8.2	D+5.6
CA-36	Bono Mack	39.0	41.4	R+2.4	D+3.1	R+11.0	R+6.8	R+7.7
CA-41	None	41.9	35.3	D+6.6	D+18.9	D+7.4	D+13.0	D+10.3
CA-46	Sanchez	44.8	32.1	D+12.7	D+19.2	D+10.0	D+10.6	D+11.0
CA-47	None	42.6	32.0	D+10.6	D+19.3	D+8.6	D+9.4	D+9.7
CA-52	Bilbray	32.9	35.9	R+3.0	D+12.1	R+7.8	R+8.4	R+6.6

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District	DEM	GOP	Margin	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	2008 Pres.	PF
SD-05	42.6	38.2	D+4.4	R+7.0	D+1.6	D+8.4	R+1.4
SD-19	44.0	31.8	D+12.2	R+6.2	D+6.2	D+22.5	D+2.3
SD-27	40.9	34.6	D+6.3	R+0.8	R+0.8	D+16.4	D+0.8
SD-31	39.8	37.1	D+2.7	R+0.2	D+5.6	D+14.5	D+3.3
SD-39	38.1	30.9	D+7.2	D+6.6	D+6.0	D+13.8	D+6.8

State Assembly

District	DEM	GOP	Margin	2010 Sen.	2010 Gov.	2008 Pres.	PF
AD-08	40.4	37.9	D+2.5	R+5.2	D+7.6	D+7.1	D+1.6
AD-16	40.1	34.4	D+5.7	D+5.0	D+5.8	D+23.4	D+6.3
AD-21	47.9	33.0	D+14.9	R+7.2	D+1.2	D+11.5	R+0.5
AD-31	49.7	32.9	D+16.8	D+3.2	D+14.6	D+20.8	D+10.3
AD-32	47.5	33.5	D+14.0	R+8.3	R+8.6	D+7.7	R+5.4
AD-40	39.6	38.0	D+1.6	R+6.0	D+1.0	D+7.6	R+1.6
AD-44	39.2	37.2	D+2.0	R+5.8	R+5.4	D+12.0	R+4.0
AD-60	36.6	39.7	R+3.1	R+10.8	R+4.8	D+5.0	R+6.7
AD-61	42.8	34.7	D+8.1	D+10.4	D+15.8	D+24.0	D+13.1
AD-65	36.6	38.0	R+1.4	R+10.6	R+8.8	D+3.4	R+8.2
AD-66	38.4	35.6	D+2.8	R+2.2	R+1.4	D+12.6	R+0.6

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 35 DEM, 18 GOP

Safe DEM (26): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 43, 44, 51, 53
Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 40, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

Posted by Sara at December 27, 2011 08:38 PM