Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - Post-Filing Deadline Edition
With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.
Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Calitics.
Breaking news: We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| CA-03 | Dan Lungren | 38.46% | 39.04% | R+0.58 | O+0.5 |
| CA-24 | Elton Gallegly | 35.78% | 41.53% | R+5.75 | O+2.8 |
| CA-25 | Buck McKeon | 37.42% | 39.58% | R+2.16 | O+1.1 |
| CA-26 | David Dreier | 35.64% | 40.15% | R+4.51 | O+4.0 |
| CA-44 | Ken Calvert | 34.67% | 42.47% | R+7.80 | O+0.9 |
| CA-45 | Mary Bono Mack | 38.02% | 41.50% | R+3.48 | O+4.6 |
| CA-48 | John Campbell | 29.36% | 44.36% | R+15.00 | O+0.7 |
| CA-50 | Brian Bilbray | 31.33% | 39.91% | R+8.58 | O+4.2 |
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| SD-04 | Sam Aanestad | 32.78% | 43.83% | R+11.05 | M+11.8 |
| SD-12 | Jeff Denham | 49.13% | 32.03% | D+17.10 | O+17.6 |
| SD-18 | Roy Ashburn | 31.76% | 47.36% | R+15.60 | M+23.1 |
| SD-36 | Dennis Hollingsworth | 28.97% | 45.60% | R+16.63 | M+14.2 |
Democrats (5)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| SD-16 | Dean Florez | 50.41% | 32.00% | D+18.41 | O+19.5 |
| SD-22 | Gilbert Cedillo | 58.91% | 14.39% | D+43.52 | O+58.7 |
| SD-24 | Gloria Romero | 53.53% | 20.72% | D+32.81 | O+41.3 |
| SD-34 | Lou Correa | 44.22% | 32.49% | D+11.73 | O+16.8 |
| SD-40 | Denise Ducheny | 46.47% | 28.84% | D+17.63 | O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| AD-03 | Dan Logue | 34.52% | 39.91% | R+5.39 | M+1.6 |
| AD-05 | Roger Niello | 38.97% | 38.05% | D+0.92 | O+4.2 |
| AD-25 | Tom Berryhill | 37.35% | 41.70% | R+4.35 | M+7.9 |
| AD-26 | Bill Berryhill | 42.35% | 38.88% | D+3.47 | O+4.4 |
| AD-30 | Danny Gilmore | 46.12% | 36.12% | D+10.00 | O+3.9 |
| AD-33 | Sam Blakeslee | 35.89% | 40.47% | R+4.58 | O+1.4 |
| AD-36 | Steve Knight | 38.92% | 39.29% | R+0.37 | O+0.8 |
| AD-37 | Audra Strickland | 35.87% | 41.04% | R+5.17 | O+3.7 |
| AD-38 | Cameron Smyth | 36.83% | 39.62% | R+2.79 | O+4.9 |
| AD-63 | Bill Emmerson | 37.96% | 40.01% | R+2.05 | O+4.1 |
| AD-64 | Brian Nestande | 36.08% | 41.95% | R+5.87 | O+1.8 |
| AD-65 | Paul Cook | 36.91% | 41.29% | R+4.38 | M+4.1 |
| AD-68 | Van Tran | 32.78% | 40.78% | R+8.00 | M+2.9 |
| AD-70 | Chuck DeVore | 30.12% | 42.93% | R+12.81 | O+3.9 |
| AD-74 | Martin Garrick | 30.88% | 41.17% | R+10.29 | O+2.2 |
| AD-75 | Nathan Fletcher | 30.64% | 39.58% | R+8.94 | O+4.1 |
Democrats (15)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| AD-07 | Noreen Evans | 52.94% | 23.47% | D+29.47 | O+43.3 |
| AD-09 | Dave Jones | 56.92% | 18.55% | D+38.37 | O+49.0 |
| AD-10 | Alyson Huber | 39.41% | 39.18% | D+0.23 | O+4.0 |
| AD-15 | Joan Buchanan | 40.65% | 35.70% | D+4.95 | O+16.9 |
| AD-20 | Alberto Torrico | 48.74% | 19.90% | D+28.84 | O+42.3 |
| AD-21 | Ira Ruskin | 47.61% | 26.40% | D+21.21 | O+45.8 |
| AD-23 | Joe Coto | 51.59% | 18.60% | D+32.99 | O+44.4 |
| AD-31 | Juan Arambula | 50.40% | 32.35% | D+18.05 | O+26.1 |
| AD-35 | Pedro Nava | 48.03% | 27.56% | D+20.47 | O+35.6 |
| AD-47 | Karen Bass | 64.89% | 11.14% | D+53.75 | O+71.9 |
| AD-50 | Hector De La Torre | 61.99% | 15.82% | D+46.17 | O+55.9 |
| AD-76 | Lori Saldaņa | 41.94% | 26.52% | D+15.42 | O+34.4 |
| AD-78 | Martin Block | 42.97% | 30.97% | D+12.00 | O+21.8 |
| AD-80 | Manuel Perez | 45.74% | 35.25% | D+10.49 | O+20.7 |
Posted by Sara at March 24, 2010 10:06 PM
