March 24, 2009

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - March 2009 edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Calitics.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.07%
44.12%
R+11.05
M+12.80
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.46%
33.14%
D+14.32
O+17.64
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.93%
47.63%
R+15.70
M+15.00
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.96%
46.07%
R+17.11
M+14.16

Democrats (5)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.67%
33.14%
D+16.53
O+21.35
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.98%
14.77%
D+44.21
O+58.53
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.62%
21.16%
D+32.46
O+41.34
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.68%
34.05%
D+8.63
O+16.81
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.50%
29.66%
D+15.84
O+26.64

Assembly numbers are over the flip...

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.83%
40.20%
R+5.37
M+1.60
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.94%
38.83%
R+0.89
O+4.24
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.84%
42.32%
R+5.48
M+7.90
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.03%
39.27%
D+2.76
O+4.11
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.45%
36.56%
D+9.89
O+4.39
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.86%
40.69%
R+4.83
O+1.39
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.55%
38.72%
D+0.83
O+0.66
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.84%
41.46%
R+5.62
O+3.73
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.84%
40.05%
R+3.21
O+4.86
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.85%
40.44%
R+2.59
O+4.09
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.26%
41.61%
R+5.35
O+1.79
AD-65
Paul Cook
37.14%
41.06%
R+3.92
M+4.12
AD-68
Van Tran
32.72%
41.61%
R+8.89
M+2.95
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.12%
43.73%
R+13.61
O+3.93
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.88%
41.62%
R+10.74
O+2.16
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.74%
39.81%
R+9.07
O+4.05

Democrats (15)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.84%
23.73%
D+29.11
O+43.31
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.63%
18.74%
D+37.89
O+49.15
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.32%
39.43%
R+0.11
O+3.91
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
54.24%
22.10%
D+32.14
O+40.90
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.59%
36.14%
D+4.45
O+16.55
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.62%
20.19%
D+18.43
O+42.28
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.13%
26.81%
D+20.32
O+45.90
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.36%
18.97%
D+32.39
O+44.45
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.04%
33.92%
D+15.12
O+24.81
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.21%
27.95%
D+20.26
O+35.46
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.95%
11.28%
D+53.67
O+71.90
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.91%
16.23%
D+45.68
O+55.86
AD-76
Lori Saldaņa
41.92%
26.76%
D+15.16
O+34.34
AD-78
Martin Block
43.01%
31.51%
D+11.50
O+11.82
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.25%
36.62%
D+8.63
O+20.68

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)

(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68

Posted by Sara at March 24, 2009 09:04 PM
Comments

Once again, nicely done and very helpful.

Thank you Sara :)

Posted by: Diana at March 30, 2009 03:06 PM