More doom and gloom from Kunstler at Clusterfuck Nation
What makes Kunstler's "peak oil" predictions so unsettling is that so many of them are coming true.
Read, if you dare.
Posted by Diana at June 19, 2008 08:37 PM.
Kunstler doesn't have much of a track record as a prognosticator. He predicted a Y2K catastrophe, a major stock market crash in boom year 2005, and now we're all going to completely run out of oil, and live carless in a bunch of hobbit-hamlets by, say, next Tuesday. Well, the man knows how to sell books.
The current crisis will pass like all the rest. But I do believe, and hope, that a concurrence of trends will result in some positive changes over the next fifty years or so. Exurbs & suburbs will have to integrate and boost efficiencies. Conservation of resources will have to become a universal lifestyle. Improved communications and a more educated populace, motivated by events like 9/11, the "War on Terror," and the elections of 2000/ 2004/ 2008 will become more politically & socially active. The old political system will crumble as the old guard and their old world-view die off.
Rather than fearing and bemoaning some apocalypse, always-positive, creative and adaptable Americans will find joy and satisfaction in making over their own world. They will set an example for the rest of the world, and, yes Virginia, I mean, Diana, everything will be all right.
Don't blame Mr & Mrs. Sixpack for the way things are. Bureaucrats and speculators never asked their opinions. Nobody asked for the suburbs, the freeways, the car-culture, or oil-dependency. Most people are getting sick of it all now, and welcome any positive changes.
The Obamacrats are in excellent position to take advantage of this. With the landslide victory that is coming, complete with the biggest Legislative coattails in generations, our representatives in Washington and in the State Houses will have an unparalleled ability to bring about positive changes.
I'm not saying it'll all go smoothly, or that nobody will suffer. There will be a Helluva fight to get the moneyed special interests out of our political system. But if we all stick with it, and don't fall for any corporatist propaganda, or simply succumb to inertia after the election, we can, dare I say it, change the world, rearrange the world. (Maybe we can even get David Crosby cleaned up.)
It's kind of like your seismic system in California: You can't hold the Big One off forever: There's a shift in the continental plates that's been in the works for a long time now: Since WWII. The smaller temblors in 1960, 68, and 88 were just minor releases of pressure. The social quake of 2008 will permanently alter the American landscape for the better, in all those ways that should have happened years ago.
It's going to be like a year of Christmasses. Damned hard work, like most Christmas's, but wonderful for the children. We owe it to them, and it will be a real gezunt on us all if we deliver.
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Well said Cosa. Very well said indeed. You really should be blogging this. I'm afraid your brilliance is getting lost in the comments section. If you ever want to cross-post on DFC, I would be proud and honored to have your contribution.
While I share your optimism, I think trends are developing that everyone needs to understand if the optimistic outlook is going to bare fruit. Bad legislation by politicians pandering to public concerns could only make things worse. Rather than legislate they need to listen to what the market is telling them.
One of these trends is "Peak Oil," of which, as you know, Jim Kunstler is a leading proponent.
Nevermind about his predictions about Y2K, he's getting Peak Oil right, and that's not necessarily because the world is running out of oil, or more accurately out of "cheap" oil (though it might be, nobody really knows), but because the oil market is convinced, wrongly or rightly, that it is. Their conviction is driving prices into the stratosphere.
I suspect the influence of Kunstler's books, which have spawned a whole network of "Peak Oil" blogs and discussions on the Internet, is having an impact on speculation in the futures market. Traders are betting that peak oil is either here now or coming soon, and when enough of them believe it they can make it so. Call it a self-fulfilling prophecy, but you know you could get 6 billion people to believe in Y2K, that wasn't going to make computers crash at midnight 2000, but get thousands of futures traders to believe that we're entering a period when demand outstrips supply, and they can make it happen simply by bidding up the price.
The result is what Kunstler predicted. Higher oil prices are forcing people to change their behavior. They're not changing because they've suddenly awakened to the cost of our lifestyle to the environment and to developing nations around the world. They're being dragged kicking and screaming into a new era, all because oil traders are making it too costly for them to continue live in the old one.
We should thank them.
So I think it would be best to leave the market alone, let it do its thing. People should not pressure lawmakers to legislate against speculation. Eventually prices will come down, but not until everyone hears and understands the message the market is sending: Change or combust.
Posted by: Diana at June 22, 2008 06:06 PM